Lumida
/SMPL
⌘K
Simply Good Foods Co

Simply Good Foods Co

SMPL
$9.84USD↓-3.91%-0.40 today

MARKET CAP

870.5M

P/E (TTM)

6.0x

FWD P/E

6.0x

DAY RANGE

$10 – $10

52W RANGE

$10
$28

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

SMPL remains entrenched in a downtrend with price confined to a tight $11.13–$11.50 range well below the 200-day SMA. Medium-term bias is bearish, supported by active lower highs and lower lows, while short-term timing is neutral—favoring staged sales into the resistance cluster around $11.45–$11.50 for a Trim execution.

  • ↑Quest brand net sales rose 1.1% YoY, showing consumer relevance
  • ↑High single-digit price increases planned to offset inflation headwinds
  • ↓Q3 net sales fell 6.3% YoY, led by Atkins’ 24.6% drop
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) operates in the nutrition and snack foods sector, featuring prominent brands such as Quest, Atkins, and OWYN. The company focuses on providing innovative and purposeful nutrition products that align with consumer health trends, making it a player in the shift toward healthier eating options. However, it currently faces significant challenges in execution and brand performance while aiming to optimize profitability amid evolving market dynamics.

Bull says

  • ↑Quest brand net sales rose 1.1% YoY, showing consumer relevance
  • ↑High single-digit price increases planned to offset inflation headwinds
  • ↑~$240 M in share buybacks last year underlines strong liquidity
  • ↑Management refocusing on marketing and GLP-1 trend to drive Atkins rebound
  • ↑Upward analyst revisions signal growing confidence in future earnings
  • ↑High book-to-price ratio indicates potential undervaluation

Bear says

  • ↓Q3 net sales fell 6.3% YoY, led by Atkins’ 24.6% drop
  • ↓Q3 net loss of $52 M, including an $82 M impairment, pressures earnings
  • ↓Negative profitability trend points to weak margin conversion
  • ↓Gross margins expected to compress by ~375 bps amid inflation
  • ↓High short interest and negative momentum reflect bearish sentiment
  • ↓Turnaround execution risks persist, with management noting early-stage progress

Earnings Call · Q3 2024 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 07-10-2025neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • We have two muffins and a brownie that we're launching and the retailer reaction and support for this platform has been absolutely terrific as you would expect.
  • based on the commitments we've got from retailers, we expect strong, very strong merchandising support and we're very pleased with the sell-in and modular decisions that have been made by all customers, all channels.
  • Most recent period growing 50%, as I said, run rate of $300 million. And we continue -- we're going to up, I'd say, up our sights on that business.

Bear points

  • our expectation is Atkins will continue to be down in fiscal '25, driven by this harder look at trade -- lower ROI trade marketing investments.
  • Atkins performance improved compared to last quarter but was still off versus last year.
  • While early the innovation we accelerated to market is performing well and is in line with our estimates.
Read full transcript analysis ›