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Smurfit WestRock PLC

Smurfit WestRock PLC

SW
$43.22USD↑+2.39%+1.01 today

MARKET CAP

22.6B

P/E (TTM)

59.2x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$42 – $43

52W RANGE

$33
$53

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

SW remains in a Stage 4 declining phase after a decisive support failure below the 20- and 50-day EMAs. Price trades below the short-term EMAs and has rebounded off the rising 200-day SMA in an oversold context, but downward momentum persists. The medium-term bias is bearish, so trimming positions into relief rallies into the 20/50-day EMA resistance zone offers the highest-probability execution.

  • ↑Q2 adj. EBITDA of $1.14B at a 14.2% margin despite freight headwinds
  • ↑Onboarded 600+ new corrugated customers via value-over-volume strategy
  • ↓Freight inflation added a $300M year-on-year cost headwind in Q2
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

Smurfit Westrock Plc (NYSE: SW) is a leading player in the global packaging industry, providing innovative fiber-based packaging solutions across various sectors, focusing on sustainability and operational excellence. The company operates primarily in North America, Europe, and Latin America, specializing in corrugated and paper packaging products. Following its merger with WestRock, the company aims to optimize its extensive product portfolio to meet evolving market demands.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2 adj. EBITDA of $1.14B at a 14.2% margin despite freight headwinds
  • ↑Onboarded 600+ new corrugated customers via value-over-volume strategy
  • ↑Declared $0.4523 quarterly dividend and plans $2.4–$2.5B capex in 2026
  • ↑Management sees demand recovery driving upside, citing strengthening order books
  • ↑Pricing power restored with containerboard initiatives supporting long-term margins
  • ↑Strong earnings revisions and solid balance sheet underpin stability and value

Bear says

  • ↓Freight inflation added a $300M year-on-year cost headwind in Q2
  • ↓Weak profitability factors signal ongoing efficiency challenges despite revenue gains
  • ↓Elevated leverage heightens refinancing risk and vulnerability to interest-rate hikes
  • ↓Demand recovery signals remain mixed, leaving growth momentum uncertain
  • ↓Negative price momentum and elevated volatility may deter investor confidence
  • ↓Margin sustainability hinges on input-cost stabilization, which remains unclear

Investment themes with SW

High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-16-2026bullish

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • the business delivered another strong performance in the second quarter, with net sales of over $7.9 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin ahead of guidance at $1.213 billion, and adjusted EBITDA margin for the group of over 15%, and a strong adjusted free cash flow of $387 billion.
  • compared to the combined performance of the business for the same period last year, showing mid-single-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA and a further improvement in the group margin.
  • $4.8 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $752 million, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 15.8%, an excellent outcome.

Bear points

  • Cargator box pricing was higher compared to the prior year, while box volumes were down 4.5% on a same-day basis, and now come very much in line with our ongoing value-over-volume strategy.
Read full transcript analysis ›