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United Parcel Service Inc

United Parcel Service Inc

UPS
$100.28USD↑+0.31%+0.31 today

MARKET CAP

85.3B

P/E (TTM)

16.2x

FWD P/E

—

DAY RANGE

$99 – $101

52W RANGE

$82
$122

AI Summary

Stalk
TrimMedium

UPS has broken below key EMAs and SMAs, confirming a distribution phase with sellers firmly in control. The medium- and long-term directional bias is bearish, while short-term conditions are oversold and extended. Optimal execution is to trim positions into a relief rally into the 9-/20-/50-EMA zone around 101.4–105.0, as mean-reversion pressure is likely to limit further decline.

  • ↑Q2'26 revenue reached $22.8B (+7.6% YoY) with operating profit of $2.1B (9.2% margin).
  • ↑Amazon glide-down will remove 1M packages/day in 2026, boosting revenue quality.
  • ↓Negative growth trend persists; Amazon glide-down set to pressure Q1 volumes and revenues.
Full analysis →

The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bullish

United Parcel Service, Inc. (NYSE: UPS) is a leading global logistics provider, renowned for its package delivery and supply chain management services operating across more than 200 countries. As a dominant player in the logistics and transportation industry, UPS is restructuring its focus to enhance operational efficiency and prioritize high-margin segments like healthcare logistics and small-to-medium business (SMB) solutions while reducing reliance on lower-margin volumes, particularly from Amazon.

Bull says

  • ↑Q2'26 revenue reached $22.8B (+7.6% YoY) with operating profit of $2.1B (9.2% margin).
  • ↑Amazon glide-down will remove 1M packages/day in 2026, boosting revenue quality.
  • ↑Healthcare logistics revenue topped $3B over two quarters; addresses an $82B market.
  • ↑Projected $5.4B in 2026 dividends and $4.7B cash bolster shareholder returns.
  • ↑Cost-cutting drove 40bps margin improvement to 9.2%, despite lower daily volumes.
  • ↑High earnings yield, strong dividend yield and positive momentum signal solid fundamentals.

Bear says

  • ↓Negative growth trend persists; Amazon glide-down set to pressure Q1 volumes and revenues.
  • ↓Variable costs remain high as volumes exit, compressing profit margins.
  • ↓Fuel-price spikes and evolving trade policies risk higher operating expenses.
  • ↓Elevated short interest and weak institutional sentiment could pressure the stock.
  • ↓Network reconfiguration risks service delays and execution inefficiencies during transition.
  • ↓Weak profitability and quality scores, plus low institutional ownership, signal headwinds.

Investment themes with UPS

High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Logistics↓ -1.52%

UNP · UBER · FDX

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 08-11-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • we saw volume in our China to the rest of the world trade lanes increase by 22.4 percent, and we nearly doubled our capacity between India and Europe to meet the growing export demand on that trade lane.
  • bullish on the opportunity here.
  • With efficiency reimagined, we are redesigning end-to-end processes to drive savings, like a new global payment strategy. Here, we've centralized how we make and receive payments under a digital-first strategy, which will drive efficiency for UPS and improve the customer experience.

Bear points

  • an increased tariff and the elimination of de minimis exceptions resulted in a year-over-year drop in average daily volume of 34.8 percent for the months of May and June.
  • For the quarter, total U.S. average daily volume was down 7.3%, primarily driven by our planned glide down of Amazon volume and revenue quality efforts.
  • reflecting pressure from trade lane shifts, product trade down, lower demand related surcharges, and the investments we are making to expand weekend services in Europe.
Read full transcript analysis ›