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Harley-Davidson Inc

Harley-Davidson Inc

HOG
$27.87USD↑+3.38%+0.91 today

MARKET CAP

2.9B

P/E (TTM)

15.8x

FWD P/E

19.7x

DAY RANGE

$27 – $28

52W RANGE

$17
$31

AI Summary

Stalk
Sell NowMedium

Despite the long-term uptrend, HOG has suffered a clear support failure in its 1–3 month structure, indicating medium-term bearish continuation. Short-term momentum favors selling now as price breaks below clustered support and retests EMAs as resistance. The prior support zone has flipped into resistance, reinforcing a bearish medium-term posture. Execution should be immediate on any retest of the broken support cluster.

  • ↑North American retail sales rose 3% YoY to ~30,000 units sold.
  • ↑Q2 revenue reached $1.1B (+6% YoY) and EPS beat at $0.75.
  • ↓Analysts cut Q4 EPS estimates to a larger loss, flagging low growth.
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The case for & against

Bull & Bear analysis

Bearish

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is a leading motorcycle manufacturer, distinguished by its iconic brand and historically strong presence in the heavyweight cruiser and touring motorcycle segments. The company is currently transitioning to expand its product offerings in the emerging electric motorcycle market through its LiveWire division. Its strategic "Back to the Bricks" initiative aims to re-architect dealer relationships while enhancing operational execution and adapting to varying market dynamics.

Bull says

  • ↑North American retail sales rose 3% YoY to ~30,000 units sold.
  • ↑Q2 revenue reached $1.1B (+6% YoY) and EPS beat at $0.75.
  • ↑Operating income improved to $72M from $61M last year.
  • ↑Share buybacks repurchased 7.9M shares ($158M) YTD, reflecting strong cash flow.
  • ↑LiveWire segment revenue surged 52%, underpinning EV market entry.
  • ↑High earnings yield, strong liquidity, and a 0.44% dividend yield support valuation.

Bear says

  • ↓Analysts cut Q4 EPS estimates to a larger loss, flagging low growth.
  • ↓Operating margins pressured by $75M–$90M in tariff costs and inventory expenses.
  • ↓EMEA retail sales fell 9% YoY as Europe remains a challenging market.
  • ↓Rising competition from EV startups and lighter models threatens share.
  • ↓Skepticism around “Back to the Bricks” dealer strategy may limit gains.
  • ↓Weak profitability, weak momentum, and smaller size factors suggest underperformance.

Investment themes with HOG

High Dividend Yield↓ -0.51%

Companies paying above-average dividends

AVGO · JPM · XOM
Buybacks↓ -0.29%

Companies repurchasing their own shares

C · JCI · WFC

Earnings Call · Q2 2025 · Mgmt. Guidance

Updated 07-31-2026neutral

Transcript signals

Bull points

  • this will give us the flexibility to invest up to $300 million of additional funds into future growth opportunities.
  • As a result of this transaction, HDFS intends to distribute $1.25 billion of cash to HDI representing around 40% of our current market cap.
  • the launch of our first small-displacement motorcycle for the U.S. and international markets, which has been in development since 2021.

Bear points

  • consolidated revenue for the second quarter declined 19% driven primarily by a planned reduction in motorcycle shipments and soft demand.
  • Global motorcycle retail sales were down 15% year over year reflecting the continued impact of elevated interest rates on customer purchasing behavior, broader demand softness and overall economic uncertainty.
  • The fluid global Paris environment and negative consumer sentiment remains a challenge for the business.
Read full transcript analysis ›